The future of the commercial vehicle industry: between batteries and hydrogen

Germany by 2045, the EU by 2050, China by 2060 and India by 2070 – the targets for climate neutrality are clear. And because the transport sector must make a massive contribution to this, the commercial vehicle industry is facing one of the greatest transformations in its history.

At the same time, commercial vehicles form the backbone of the economy. Without them, industry, trade and supply chains simply cannot function. This is precisely where the challenge lies: decarbonisation must be environmentally effective – whilst remaining economically viable.

The EU is significantly tightening its regulations. New heavy-duty commercial vehicles must reduce their CO₂ emissions by 45 per cent by 2030, and by as much as 90 per cent by 2040. From 2027, the European Emissions Trading Scheme will make fossil fuels even more expensive. At the same time, the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) obliges Member States to establish a dense network of fast-charging stations and hydrogen refuelling points. Political pressure is high, and the timeline is ambitious.

However, transport companies calculate based on total costs. The total cost of ownership is the decisive factor. Today, diesel engines are still the cheapest solution. Alternative powertrains entail higher investment and energy costs. Without support schemes or rising CO₂ prices, they are often at a competitive disadvantage.

Technologically, no clear winner has yet emerged. Battery-electric lorries are considered particularly efficient and are best suited to local and regional transport. Their ranges are increasing steadily. However, heavy batteries reduce payload capacity, and the roll-out of high-capacity charging infrastructure is still in its infancy.

Fuel-cell lorries, on the other hand, offer long ranges of up to 1,000 kilometres and short refuelling times. They can demonstrate particular advantages in long-distance transport and for heavy haulage. Vehicles and hydrogen are still expensive. Looking ahead, however, economic parity could be achieved from 2030 onwards with hydrogen prices of six to seven euros per kilogram.

More climate-friendly liquid fuels such as HVO or synthetic fuels also play a role. They can be used in the existing fleet and reduce CO₂ emissions, but their production and availability are limited. They are therefore regarded more as a transitional solution.

The real bottleneck is the infrastructure. A complete electrification of heavy goods transport would massively increase electricity demand. Expanding the networks is costly and time-consuming. For hydrogen, studies propose a strategically distributed network of refuelling stations: around 140 well-located stations could, in the medium term, supply a large proportion of heavy goods vehicle traffic in Germany. However, the European roll-out is lagging behind.

Internationally, competitive pressure is mounting. China is investing heavily in battery and hydrogen technologies. A large proportion of the fuel-cell lorries in use worldwide are already operating there. European manufacturers are therefore under dual pressure: they must meet stringent regulatory requirements whilst also remaining competitive on the global stage.

In the long term, there are many indications that a parallel technological path is likely. Urban distribution transport is expected to become predominantly battery-electric. For heavy-duty long-haul applications, range and refuelling time favour hydrogen solutions. A one-sided commitment to just one technology appears to make little sense, either technically or economically.

The key message of the white paper is therefore: climate neutrality in the commercial vehicle sector is achievable – but only with an open approach to technology, predictable regulation, massive infrastructure investment and competitive energy costs. The transformation is not an either/or choice between batteries and hydrogen, but a both/and approach.