Autonomous driving: Is the profession of professional driver soon to be a dead-end job?

Autonomous driving is one of the key drivers of innovation in the commercial vehicle sector. There have been technological breakthroughs, regulatory advances and practical pilot projects. However, development is still a long way from fully autonomous driving without human intervention – the definition of Level 5. The technology is only just transitioning from the testing phase to its first commercial applications – though not yet on a widespread scale.

Only Level 5 can replace drivers

Level 5 is the highest level of autonomous driving. With this full automation, the vehicle moves completely autonomously – regardless of the environment, route or conditions, entirely without a driver or steering wheel. Only when all commercial vehicles reach this level will drivers likely become truly redundant.

Currently, most vehicles are still at Level 1, assisted driving. Here, the vehicle provides selective support to the driver, for example through cruise control or lane-keeping assist, whilst responsibility remains entirely with the human. Level 2 (partial automation) combines several assistance systems so that the vehicle can steer, accelerate and brake simultaneously – but the driver must be ready to intervene at any time.

At Level 3 (conditional automation), the system takes over the driving task completely under certain conditions; the driver may devote their attention to other activities at times, but must be able to intervene when prompted. Level 4 (high automation) goes even further: the vehicle drives autonomously within defined operational areas – human intervention is no longer required there.

Modern commercial vehicles are already highly automated today. Driver assistance systems such as lane-keeping assist, adaptive cruise control or emergency braking functions have long been standard and correspond to automation levels up to Level 2 and 3.

ATLAS-L4 on German roads

The next major step is Level 4 – that is, highly automated driving without constant driver supervision in defined operational areas. Significant progress has been made in this area in recent years: in Germany, the ATLAS-L4 project marked the first time an autonomous lorry was tested on public roads. Pilot projects involving semi-autonomous vehicles in real-world logistics operations – for example, in collaboration between shippers, freight forwarders and technology providers – also demonstrate that the technology fundamentally works.

The breakthrough is currently taking place primarily in clearly defined operational areas. Autonomous lorries are already operating today on company premises, in ports or between logistics centres on short, defined routes.

Specific projects show the way forward: Daimler is currently developing Level 4 lorries for use on US highways in collaboration with Torc Robotics. Another Daimler collaboration with Waymo has a similar objective. Here, robotaxi technology is to be transferred to freight transport in the form of Level 4 truck platforms. Deployment is planned on highly automated freight corridors in the USA.

The Aurora Innovation project, with OEM partners such as PACCAR and Volvo, is regarded as one of the most advanced Level 4 projects worldwide. Commercial driverless operation without a safety driver between Dallas and Houston is already a reality. The aim is to scale up a commercial autonomous freight network.

No manufacturer is currently pursuing a concrete Level 5 series production project. This is due to the extreme technical complexity involved, with a wide variety of weather and road conditions, and a lack of regulations.

Short-term transition to regular operation

In fact, the legal framework is a decisive factor for success. Germany established the legal foundations for autonomous driving at an early stage and already allows Level 4 vehicles to operate in defined areas. Regulation is also progressing at EU level. New legal frameworks for automated and teleoperated driving are being continuously developed to facilitate the transition to regular operation.

This is expected to happen as early as this year

Economic pressure is further accelerating development. The growing shortage of drivers in road freight transport is considered one of the key drivers for autonomous technologies. At the same time, autonomous systems promise greater efficiency, lower operating costs and better vehicle utilisation.

No wonder that market researchers at Fortune Business Insights expect the global market for autonomous trucks to more than double from around 47 billion US dollars today to 2034. The institute thus anticipates an average annual growth rate of 11 per cent over the forecast period. However, it is not the Europeans or Asians who are leading the way here, but the USA.

Rapid scaling is being held back

Despite all the progress, one thing is clear: we are still a long way from fully autonomous freight transport. Complex traffic situations, high safety requirements and economic considerations are holding back rapid scaling.

Whilst autonomous robotaxis have already become part of everyday life in some regions of the world, the deployment of autonomous lorries is still predominantly in the pilot phase. However, the commercial vehicle industry is at a decisive turning point when it comes to autonomous driving. The technology is highly advanced, the first real-world applications exist, and the regulatory framework is becoming increasingly clear.

In the short term, autonomous lorries are expected to be deployed in clearly defined areas – for example, on fixed routes between logistics centres or on motorways. However, widespread deployment in mixed traffic remains a medium-term prospect. For the industry, this means that we are now at the stage where visions are turning into concrete business models. And professional drivers will remain in short supply for several more years. So being a trucker is a job with a future, at least in the medium term.